再談建行的支持位2

哎,真的有點難度!

3月16日當天蘋果日報曾淵滄博士和青姐兩篇把我之前對內銀的分析加以肯定,令之前大行預測建行會於3月時見$4-4.15這個低位。而事實上建行在我設定的預期低位$4.3買不到以後,其最近低位$4.31已成了到季的底位了。看回過去幾篇相關文章建行以再試此位越來越難了。

曾淵滄專欄:壞賬轉股利多於弊 – 2016/3/16 蘋果日報

負債的企業若能起死回生,對中國經濟整體而言是好事。資料圖片

最新的中央金融政策允許國企銀行將一些無法回收,本該是壞賬的債務轉化為股權,也就是說,銀行由某企業的債權人變成該企業的股東,這項轉變引來眾多的討論,有人看得很淡,也有人認為不錯,消息傳出後,數隻內銀股的股價基本上是跟隨大市起落,沒有特別異樣,不過,我還是認為這是相當重要的政策,應該深入的討論。先談看淡者的理據:看淡者認為把壞賬變成股票的做法只是人為的遮蓋壞賬,降低資產的質素;看好的人則認為此舉可以使到負債沉重的虧損企業在債務減輕後獲得重生,這相等於該企業獲得注資以還債,而注資者正好是銀行。

防企業破產多人失業我認為比較好處與壞處,關鍵處是債權轉換成股份的定價。基本上,這些負債沉重的企業,銀行已經無法收回這些壞賬,只能打折賣給專門收購不良資產的企業如信達(1359),打折出售債權的損失是真實的,不可改變的。

因此,把債權變成股權,可以幫助這家企業減低債務,重新上路,也許有起死回生的機會。不過,把債權變股權時,每股定價就非常重要,定價高低決定了銀行將來能否把壞賬轉變成良好資產的關鍵,如果壞賬來自上市公司,該公司股票的市價已經說明了投資者對該公司前途的看法,也許,在宣佈債務變股東之後,市場會重新評估該公司的股票價值,股價上升,銀行就直接得益。

負債企業在發行新股以取代債務後若能起死回生,對中國經濟而言是好事,少一家企業破產,少一些人失業。

曾淵滄 財經評論員

另一篇青姐也有相似的總結。

青心直說:內銀盈利重於一切 – 胡孟青

在處理內銀問題上,似乎內地面對的矛盾,比起改革與保增長同時兼備更來得困難。一方面,四萬億元振興經濟方案遺留的壞賬問題,已不能一拖再拖。同時間,如果中央堅守供給側改革方向的話,需要確認的不良貸款與債務違約亦將會更多。但在確認及處理壞賬之同時,很明顯,作為最大股東的政府,又不願意見到盈利顯著被拖累,因為銀行體系盈利問題會成為國際話柄,較人民幣貶值來得更具殺傷力。

確認壞賬與盈利兩者之間的選擇,作為最大股東,後者的重要性明顯來得更為重要,尤其是對內地而言。盈利大數事關重大,派息多少取決於盈利水平。如果因為大幅撇賬導致盈利受影響,派息因而減少,內銀僅餘的數字上高派息賣點亦將不再,對股價所可能產生的震盪,不容忽視,更重要是,因少收利息而收入受損的是政府。

變相做埋資產管理在選擇保盈利的前提下,近日盛傳的以債轉股,更是出師有名、且不無道理。因為企業拖欠貸款已是不爭事實,這幾年銀行都想盡辦法,有銀行更索性將辦公室,搬到拖欠它們貸款企業名下的物業。

如果更進取用股權形式,代替所欠的貸款,好處當然是銀行可以進一步拖延確認壞賬,減少不良貸款的上升速度,但壞處形同銀行變相被動進行跨業經營,同時兼任資產管理公司角色。

胡孟青 獨立股評人http://www.facebook.com/324255111031901

一日之後經濟日報也有相關分析報導。

盈利增長疲弱內銀只宜低級 – 2016/3/17 經濟日報

 內銀股將陸續公布業績,金融股於指數比重較高,業績好壞對後市具影響性。

大行普遍對內銀行業前景審慎,摩根士丹利、麥格理及大和均認為內銀股盈利增長放緩,同時,資本質素續轉差。

摩根士丹利指,隨着利率進一步自由化及撥備開支增加,預期未來兩年內銀盈利增長將放緩,並預測今年大型商業銀行淨收入平均將錄負增長,幅度-2.8%;股份制銀行及小型銀行平均淨收入增長亦分別放緩至3.6%及5.5%。

資產質素轉差

另外,該行預測內銀今年平均不良貸款率料進一步升到2%至2.5%,估計仍需3至4年才可消化現時積壓的不良貸款。

另外,麥格理預計內銀股去年第四季業績疲弱,純利將按季跌26%,按年增長1.7%,當中,大型H股內銀去年純利增長或放緩至近零水平。該行關注內銀資產負債表、資產質素及償付能力,行業中較看好建行(00939),主因其核心一級資本充足率、資產質素等方面較同業優勝,予「跑贏大市」評級,目標價5.61元。  雖然,市場對內銀股業績不寄予厚望,然而,內銀股估值及息率吸引,中行(03988)、工行(01398)、建行及農行(01288)預期息率均逾7厘,宜於跌市中分段吸納作收息之選。

當中,建行於房貸佔比最高,料受惠房貸新政最大,可候低分段吸納。

看完兩天的報導加上現在正在談得熱烈的話題,就是把壞債轉成股份令壞帳減少。這樣內銀的利潤自然會變高,派高息給股東(不要忘記中國政府是其大股東)自然可持續吧。

在這種有利因素下,負面因素反而減少那如何再令建行可再下試回$4.31呢?今天嘗試下載去年建行在公佈業績後股價的變化來推斷有否有另一個低位的機會。

看建行派業績後的股價變化

去年2015年3月27日建行公佈最末業績派息人民幣$3.01即$3.81港元。當天收$6.31,而往後一周股價升了8天才回吐。這可能是中國政府再增持吧。

之後持續上上落落,到6月23日除淨日仍未出現過低位並收$7.4。由$6.31到除淨日此$7.4均未見過相對低位。

不過在過了6月23日除淨日,建行的股價便開始回落下來。到派送日當天7月23日股價甚至下降到$6.46。而第天,即7月24日開始建行的股價便一直下跌到2016年2月12日的七年最低位$4.31了。

這個七年低位是在壞消息滿天飛的環境下出現的。比較2015年3月27日公佈最末業績時的$6.31足下跌了31%。這$6.31並不是建行於此期間的最高位。最高位是出現於5月27日的$7.94,距離2016年2月12日的七年最低位的$4.31足足84%跌幅。

奇怪,為何公佈完業績後一股股價是回落的呢?原因是買的力量是由憧憬而成,一日未知道業績短炒和長揸的投資者是不會放售股份的。等到業績公佈了後(即見光死)炒家便會食糊離場。買力減少股價便回落。

那如何解釋3月27日到6月23日除淨間的上升呢?五月到七月當時又有港股大跌的情況,道理上不應出現此上升現象。

我覺得唯一解釋是中國政府此大股東若不幫忙推高建行的話,6月23日過後其計算出的預期股息便有機會泡湯。也就是說若此期間建行若是大跌其實大股東中國國金是會入市推高價格令帳面值得以維持。

除淨過後,$3.01人民幣股息沒得享用了。再持有便需要再等下年3月時間。那麼投資者還不離開轉其他的機會?這也解釋了除淨當天的$7.4回落到7月24日派送日的$6.46。更甚是7月24日後,已再沒有利好的基本因素託著了建行而開始其不斷下跌的兩季多。

了解了此情況後,我計劃了以下的策略:

  1. 等建行公佈完業績後搶先不問價買貨到先前計劃的數額,目的是為7月派息的目標盡量提高。
    若此期間建行股價已達之前之高位可考慮全數清袋。等派完息後一低過估值時重新入貨。並以逄低買入的策略進行以目標補回先前的貨量(若94071股)。
  2. 此外,由於現在仍未試回2月12日的$4.31的七年低位。若以昨天的收市價$4.85用之前預算的$18,4000入市。於近日浮沉入市。買到建行的數量應在37000至40000股的範圍。這3000股的差異我發覺對其股息的影響只在一千元以內作變化。即若買到37000股和買到40000股在本金都是那$18,4000但所產生出來的股息其實最多只差千元左右。這就是說若不介意其實以現價$4.85上第1注由於仍在$5.02以下水平,上望的空間達六成有多令值博率大增。
  3. 第一注以7000千為限,第2注以一萬為限而最後一注以兩萬令總數達37,000股。
  4. 由於中國13 5年剛完結相信未來數天未有新的好消息出現來支持建行之近日高位,我就以本周試以$4.75買七千股看看能否成功吧。致於明天周五回吐的機會是大一點的(周六前通常較淡)到時再動態調節我的Order吧。
DateOpenHighLowCloseVolumeAdj CloseRemark
3/27/20156.356.46.316.312215924005.99業績公佈
3/30/20156.456.496.46.424778078006.10
3/31/20156.546.546.436.444271977006.12
4/1/20156.456.56.446.492181288006.17
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4/8/20156.686.96.656.897384597006.55
4/9/201577.196.957.029265558006.67
4/10/20157.127.136.977.15510609006.75
4/13/20157.117.667.117.6211148325007.24
4/14/20157.67.737.487.517333056007.13
4/15/20157.57.867.477.847908230007.45
4/16/20157.767.847.77.85646131007.41
4/17/20157.827.937.67.615823080007.23
4/20/20157.87.857.367.457074510007.08
4/21/20157.57.797.57.765168147007.37
4/22/20157.787.857.637.695215725007.31
4/23/20157.787.857.587.634924540007.25
4/24/20157.657.667.467.614630306007.23
4/27/20157.617.747.67.623712960007.24
4/28/20157.697.857.627.765326415007.37
4/29/20157.767.767.627.693818978007.31
4/30/20157.617.687.537.554877680007.17
5/4/20157.67.667.557.593493489007.21
5/5/20157.667.77.347.44496316007.03
5/6/20157.397.577.317.393930726007.02
5/7/20157.327.387.257.283007794006.92
5/8/20157.347.417.297.383167379007.01
5/11/20157.457.497.337.372635861007.00
5/12/20157.377.377.287.32669261006.94
5/13/20157.47.477.327.353983863006.98
5/14/20157.477.477.267.312763825006.94
5/15/20157.377.477.267.442869984007.07
5/18/20157.57.57.37.392367231007.02
5/19/20157.447.557.377.532766068007.15
5/20/20157.577.647.517.573110865007.19
5/21/20157.67.67.527.572015454007.19
5/22/20157.667.727.637.723542066007.33
5/26/20157.97.967.847.914903571007.52
5/27/20157.897.977.837.943374226007.54最高位
5/28/20157.987.987.527.655971971007.27
5/29/20157.557.797.487.798626345007.40
6/1/20157.727.917.627.824704384007.43
6/2/20157.797.817.697.782972878007.39
6/3/20157.717.87.637.793577116007.40
6/4/20157.857.967.697.916933921007.52
6/5/20157.987.987.737.794553552007.40
6/8/20157.767.917.77.893858018007.50
6/9/20157.867.927.737.743899274007.35
6/10/20157.757.837.67.633329949007.25
6/11/20157.77.747.67.683313057007.30
6/12/20157.697.787.577.763662049007.37
6/15/20157.687.697.567.593079876007.21
6/16/20157.657.657.457.453542250007.08
6/17/20157.437.587.377.524068343007.14
6/18/20157.57.527.437.482451131007.11
6/19/20157.597.677.477.549471085007.16
6/22/20157.557.667.527.644295854007.26
6/23/20157.337.467.277.43976541007.40除淨日
6/24/20157.47.457.317.372964096007.37
6/25/20157.447.467.267.283165460007.28
6/26/20157.287.287.027.095313815007.09
6/29/20157.127.156.786.935957979006.93
6/30/20156.887.146.887.084722614007.08
7/2/20157.137.136.967.063691885007.06
7/3/20157.077.126.997.053059245007.05
7/6/20157.17.166.696.855952593006.85
7/7/20156.986.986.726.84770819006.80
7/8/20156.66.616.16.399041043006.39
7/9/20156.256.546.166.376977051006.37
7/10/20156.446.626.426.525647750006.52
7/13/20156.56.646.496.583267243006.58
7/14/20156.636.636.436.53720891006.50
7/15/20156.546.576.416.482298552006.48
7/16/20156.446.516.386.52426721006.50
7/17/20156.526.66.476.542066747006.54
7/20/20156.586.586.476.521843678006.52
7/21/20156.586.586.476.561413623006.56
7/22/20156.526.546.436.51749683006.50
7/23/20156.56.66.486.531784171006.53
7/24/20156.56.516.416.461835297006.46派息日
7/27/20156.386.416.256.283692585006.28
7/28/20156.286.386.26.263399711006.26
7/29/20156.356.396.296.351830775006.35
7/30/20156.366.446.276.292204656006.29
7/31/20156.386.46.286.331861492006.33
8/3/20156.286.326.216.311610393006.31
8/4/20156.316.376.286.331557050006.33
8/5/20156.416.416.336.341161566006.34
8/6/20156.376.386.286.321369189006.32
8/7/20156.366.436.356.411384754006.41
8/10/20156.386.416.296.371687046006.37
8/11/20156.426.486.296.322147918006.32
8/12/20156.276.36.176.212804574006.21
8/13/20156.226.286.176.222011213006.22
8/14/20156.266.276.26.221578395006.22
8/17/20156.26.236.136.181976995006.18
8/18/20156.266.266.086.112425149006.11
8/19/20156.156.266.023063384006.02
8/20/20155.955.995.825.923795268005.92
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8/25/20155.555.645.345.465369910005.46
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8/27/20155.65.65.485.584792027005.58
8/28/20155.85.85.365.374348519005.37
8/31/20155.425.495.365.453781117005.45
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9/7/20155.085.235.055.062915456005.06
9/8/20155.065.35.025.214268431005.21
9/9/20155.335.535.315.54691333005.50
9/10/20155.395.435.35.362932434005.36
9/11/20155.345.515.345.412937480005.41
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9/15/20155.425.485.395.431687244005.43
9/16/20155.495.655.465.563553174005.56
9/17/20155.625.685.525.562845872005.56
9/18/20155.535.645.535.582519541005.58
9/21/20155.465.545.415.532497002005.53
9/22/20155.515.575.425.442258269005.44
9/23/20155.395.395.25.314364319005.31
9/24/20155.315.335.25.223505812005.22
9/25/20155.25.35.25.242802289005.24
9/29/20155.055.125.045.14571577005.10
9/30/20155.135.225.115.153543059005.15
10/2/20155.175.35.175.273201611005.27
10/5/20155.365.385.315.342295392005.34
10/6/20155.435.435.275.332295322005.33
10/7/20155.335.615.35.594315346005.59
10/8/20155.625.625.495.582766172005.58
10/9/20155.655.85.645.663972284005.66
10/12/20155.695.785.685.732616623005.73
10/13/20155.785.785.625.672649592005.67
10/14/20155.65.675.555.592110552005.59
10/15/20155.655.755.635.72365664005.70
10/16/20155.85.855.735.752595871005.75
10/19/20155.75.785.75.761928293005.76
10/20/20155.725.85.685.781841363005.78
10/22/20155.755.85.725.792141851005.79
10/23/20155.875.875.825.852352417005.85
10/26/20155.955.955.785.832249335005.83
10/27/20155.835.845.715.832448788005.83
10/28/20155.775.825.75.721977015005.72
10/29/20155.765.785.635.682522133005.68
10/30/20155.695.715.625.632576087005.63
11/2/20155.555.655.535.552675718005.55
11/3/20155.635.655.565.572152266005.57
11/4/20155.625.855.625.734170471005.73
11/5/20155.735.785.75.722226584005.72
11/6/20155.665.695.595.632701370005.63
11/9/20155.575.75.565.592301270005.59
11/10/20155.525.575.485.53039953005.50
11/11/20155.495.55.445.471823571005.47
11/12/20155.495.645.475.62729126005.60
11/13/20155.495.515.425.443339606005.44
11/16/20155.295.395.295.342421855005.34
11/17/20155.395.515.375.392672893005.39
11/18/20155.45.455.385.41277604005.40
11/19/20155.495.555.485.542148424005.54
11/20/20155.545.625.495.591808751005.59
11/23/20155.65.625.535.541723790005.54
11/24/20155.545.545.425.482227657005.48
11/25/20155.435.475.395.423041627005.42
11/26/20155.485.525.425.441600520005.44
11/27/20155.455.455.355.363209358005.36
11/30/20155.315.395.275.335477682005.33
12/1/20155.345.465.35.383501372005.38
12/2/20155.385.435.355.43757738005.40
12/3/20155.355.435.355.42205352005.40
12/4/20155.355.385.315.332526343005.33
12/7/20155.365.395.315.321760113005.32
12/8/20155.285.35.215.272854711005.27
12/9/20155.235.275.25.211528872005.21
12/10/20155.175.265.165.22906864005.20
12/11/20155.25.235.155.161815282005.16
12/14/20155.055.175.055.132432873005.13
12/15/20155.085.215.085.162830895005.16
12/16/20155.235.285.225.252719862005.25
12/17/20155.315.375.265.312352499005.31
12/18/20155.235.365.225.292754893005.29
12/21/20155.255.385.255.341969797005.34
12/22/20155.335.385.315.331732133005.33
12/23/20155.335.415.315.391647621005.39
12/24/20155.425.455.45.431370673005.43
12/28/20155.455.455.345.381255792005.38
12/29/20155.365.45.345.361147994005.36
12/30/20155.365.395.285.31563824005.30
12/31/20155.35.365.295.31825232005.31
1/4/20165.275.285.135.152778951005.15
1/5/20165.115.195.15.142072018005.14
1/6/20165.125.155.085.112540051005.11
1/7/20165.055.084.9854973074005.00
1/8/20165.075.0955.022908343005.02
1/11/20164.944.964.94.923191781004.92
1/12/20164.974.984.884.892560188004.89
1/13/20164.945.014.884.892615596004.89
1/14/20164.824.874.794.823434200004.82
1/15/20164.84.844.724.733684199004.73
1/18/20164.654.714.634.653093266004.65
1/19/20164.684.774.664.742777216004.74
1/20/20164.714.714.554.584016300004.58
1/21/20164.634.644.484.493989506004.49
1/22/20164.614.634.544.573662019004.57
1/25/20164.624.664.584.612277086004.61
1/26/20164.544.564.464.473004562004.47
1/27/20164.564.584.514.553128157004.55
1/28/20164.524.634.514.623161881004.62
1/29/20164.64.774.594.733433864004.73
2/1/20164.754.784.664.711974955004.71
2/2/20164.644.694.554.583156952004.58
2/3/20164.484.534.424.512980681004.51
2/4/20164.534.644.534.582157641004.58
2/5/20164.564.654.554.641873733004.64
2/11/20164.44.514.394.432584096004.43
2/12/20164.394.424.314.313281991004.31最低位
2/15/20164.394.564.394.532467929004.53
2/16/20164.624.684.584.622694904004.62
2/17/20164.684.724.544.542604531004.54
2/18/20164.674.74.614.652353742004.65
2/19/20164.594.644.584.611507443004.61
2/22/20164.634.724.634.661387736004.66
2/23/20164.664.74.624.661345169004.66
2/24/20164.64.654.584.611527154004.61
2/25/20164.614.624.54.531880800004.53
2/26/20164.584.624.514.582043751004.58
2/29/20164.564.564.54.551812317004.55
3/1/20164.64.624.524.612010998004.61
3/2/20164.74.84.694.763317199004.76
3/3/20164.794.824.724.732263542004.73
3/4/20164.734.84.734.792519675004.79
3/7/20164.894.894.814.872759834004.87
3/8/20164.864.864.774.811741632004.81
3/9/20164.754.794.724.771575178004.77
3/10/20164.774.854.744.791907906004.79
3/11/20164.814.834.764.84072638004.80
3/14/20164.864.914.824.882419037004.88
3/15/20164.864.884.814.831982751004.83
3/16/20164.854.894.84.851753743004.85
About 孟德爾 816 Articles
孟德爾Mendel: 四眼仔一名,教會小組叫我智慧老人。不過我還是喜歡聖經中箴言30:2所講「我比眾人更蠢笨,也沒有人的聰明。」

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